Friday, April 6, 2012

Preview: MLB Season Awards

by richmin3000 and Curtis Warrington

today, curt and i preview the national league east division.
check out our preview of the american league east, here.
check out our preview of the american league central, here.
check out our preview of the american league west, here.
check out our preview of the national league east, here.
check out our preview of the national league central, here.
check out our preview of the national league west, here.
check out our playoff preview, here.

AWARDS


Curt

Rich

AL MVP

Albert Pujols

Miguel Cabrera

AL ROY

Matt Moore

Matt Moore

AL Cy Young

David Price

David Price




NL MVP

Justin Upton

Troy Tulowitzki

NL ROY

Devin Mesoraco

Bryce Harper

NL Cy Young

Roy Halladay

Zack Greinke


Curt Says
:
MVP: Pujols, Pujols, Pujols. I don't think this will be even close. He's got 3 more years of dominance in him. Enjoy it.
In the NL, I like a lot of up and coming players. I do think this is the year Justin Upton breaks out. I did say the same thing last year. I did say the same thing the year before. Why stop now?

ROY: In the NL, I'm going to go against the grain with this one and say the Nationals hold back Bryce Harper to prevent him from being a super 2, just like they did with Stephen Strasburg. The missed time in the bigs will hurt the team badly too, because as you see above, I think they've got a shot to suprise some people this year. I actually like Devin Mesoraco as a dark horse for the ROY. I think he easily beats out Ryan Hanigan and end up with more counting stats than Harper. And since he looks like Sloth from The Goonies he'll also get the sympathy votes.
In the AL, theres a whole slew of candidates. Jesus Montero could suprise, but I dont think he'll hit enough homers in Safeco to get enough attention on a bad Seattle team. Yoenis Cespedes is going to struggle in the bigs, despite leading the league in HRs as this article went to press.....with 1...he's going to strike out too much to put up more than a .260/.330/.460 type line. In the end I dont see either Matt Moore or Yu Darvish struggling and its going to be an interesting race to see who wins. The quality of play in Japan is like a good AAA league and while Darvish pretty much owned the Nippon Baseball Leauge over the past few seasons, Moore did the same in the high minors. Moore will have a higher strikeout rate that will convince voters. So I'll go with Matt Moore.

CY YOUNG: Its been too long. David Price wins the AL Cy Young Award. It may be his last chance too, as pretty soon (read: next year) he wont even be the best pitcher on his team anymore.
In the NL there's just too many good pitchers to pick one. I'm going to have to pass on picking anyone besides Roy Halladay, because he is absolutely the best pitcher we've seen since Pedro and to bet against him would be stupid.

Rich Says:
MVP: i was choosing between pujols and miguel cabrera but i think miggy is a safer bet. he's 3 years younger and puts up similar offensive numbers to pujols. though i think pujols will settle in around 300/400/575 this year, miggy should be just a tick better in the triple slash numbers winning his first ever mvp trophy.
in the nl, i love both votto and tulowitzki, but since votto has one already, i give the edge to tulo who is the best shortstop in the majors. if he could play 150+ games, he could easily put up 30 hrs, 100 runs, 120 rbis, 10 sb and a triple slash of 300/375/550 playing gold glove defense.

ROY: curt is right that there are a lot of good rookies in the al this year, but i have eyes for only one of them, rays pitcher matt moore. the rays have not put an innings limit on him which only solidifies his frontrunner status this year. with one of the smoothest deliveries i've ever seen, it wouldn't shock me to see him win the cy young this year. 180 innings with 200 k's, 15 wins and a sub 3.5 era, he'll run away with the roy award.
in the nl, the rookie crop doesn't have as much talent nor the solidified roles relative to their al peers. i like curt's pick of mesoraco and i thought about going with trevor bauer for shits n giggles, but i couldn't resist going with bryce harper especially since i picked the nationals to win the nl pennant. i think he gets called up sooner rather than later because i think he's on a major league contract which might make his super 2 status irrelevant (i'm not gonna check on this because i want to believe it's true!).

CY YOUNG: none of the al pitchers stand out above the rest. verlander should regress. i love felix but he's won already. so i thought about curt's pick and did some research. even though his numbers got worse last year, anyone who follows sabermetrics knew that his 2011 season was actually better than the 19-win, 2.72 era season in 2010. his xfip has declined 3 years in a row, as his k rate and gb rate have increased and his bb rate has decreased. he's now 26 years old and having increased his work rate to 224 innings last year, his counting stats should all be there.
there were 4 pitchers last year to have sub 3.00 xfips and they were all in the nl. all four are former cy young winner and would be great picks for cy young this year, but i'll pass on roy halladay, cliff lee and clayton kershaw to go with the one who had the lowest xfip of them all, zack greinke. greinke started 2011 injured and was limited to just 171 innings. with a full workload, he could easily reach 250 k's and 20 wins.

*Curt was a guest on Episode 11 of the No Hyperbole Allowed podcast with Rich and Colin, which you can listen to here.

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